Friday, September 28, 2007

More Buses = Best way to reduce pollution?

Ok. I have drunk the Kool-Aid and am in total support of the idea I threw out yesterday that dramatically increasing bus service is the best way to reduce congestion, improve global warming and reduce air pollution. Screw Light Rail and forget building roads as solutions. Here's why:

1. The Light Rail plan doesn't have enough track or enough stations. Chicago's elevated train has over 250 miles of track with 144 stations. It runs all the time. If you're in the Loop a train comes every freaking 2 minutes. Seattle's Light Rail plan will have 1/5th of the track, far fewer stations and will take a long long time to build. I just don't think it's going to have the dramatic increase in ridership that increasing the number of buses would.

2. Frequency -- Many people that do not commute to work on the bus will take buses up and down the north-south streets of downtown Seattle. It's free, so that's part of it but I would argue it's mostly because the buses come by every minute or two. These same people would not take the bus if it came every 30 minutes even if it was free. In my opinion, that's why the L or Manhattan's subway system is used by so many people -- because you don't have to wait! It's simply faster and more convenient.

3. Increasing the number of roads may reduce congestion, or may not, but it will obviously not reduce pollution.

4. The City of Seattle can test my theory -- We do not have to build a Light Rail system for 10 years or expand 520. Just take 2-3 bus routes... I'd suggest the 14 (Jackson/Mt.Baker), 27 (Yesler/Leschi) and 3 (Cherry/Madrona) and run them all every 10 minutes. The City of Seattle ALREADY tests how many cars go down these streets. At the end of three months test the number of cars again. If it doesn't increase ridership or decrease cars to make a positive effect on pollution, fine. You've learned a ton without spending much.

Would this reduce global warming? If every bus had more than six passengers that would otherwise drive, then yes. Good discussion here. (Note: this figure is not accounting for the upgraded hybrid-diesel buses starting to be in use since 2004, but uses older '90's style buses.)

Quick math -- There are 70 buses on Yesler/day and 8700 cars. To get to global warming parity, if you increases buses to 220/day as I suggested yesterday, you only need to reduce the number of cars to 7800, or roughly 10%.

My biggest question... what is the particulate effect (non-global-warming causing pollution). I'll examine this later.

[where: 98122]

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Prop 1, More Buses & A Suggested Experiment for SDOT

In today's PI, Ron Sims announced that he opposed the road-building initiatives in Proposition 1 because "this plan continues the national policy of ignoring our impacts upon global warming".

In short, Prop 1 adds 50 miles of light rail and a bunch of roads including a six-lane 520 at a total cost of $150 billion.

Those that oppose the proposition say it's really expensive (the largest tax bump in state history according to them) and more roads will double the amount of congestion in the next 20 years. They also claim that ridership will only be about 1% of overall trips to Seattle on the light rail side.

It's this last fact that is most shocking to me coupled with my research showing that for every bus that goes down Yesler Avenue towards downtown, there are 124 cars that travel the same route (70 buses per day, 8700 cars per day). So why do so few people ride the bus down Yesler compared to driving?

It's not cost -- a round trip on the bus is $3, parking downtown is about $10 these days if you're lucky plus gas.

It's not commute time I don't think -- when I park downtown and go to my car and go up the elevator and go down and wait for the guy in front of me to give the attendent their credit card, and then I pay the ticket and wait for the change blah blah blah it eats up about the same 10 minutes as waiting for people to get on and off the bus at the various stops between my house and downtown.

It's possible that it's other people -- I mean... who wants to sit next to the smelly guy, but I encounter road rage guy on the roads much more often then smelly guy on the bus.

I really think the issue though is frequency. Bus service downtown in the morning on Yesler is every 30 minutes. Bus service back home to Yesler after 7:00 pm looks like this.

7:05pm
7:55pm
9:05pm

Ridiculous.

I drive to work downtown sometimes because in the morning I miss the bus and don't want to get to work 30 minutes later or I don't want to be stuck waiting an hour for a bus on the way home at night. I have the same deal this evening... I'm going to the Mariners game, and I'll probably take a cab home because I don't want to sit waiting for the 27 for an hour to get home... and it's impossible to tell if I just missed it because it was early or it's coming in a few because it was late.

My wife and I went to NYC for a week in April, and didn't take a cab once. It's a pretty typical experience, you just go down to the subway look at a map, figure out which one you want to take it comes in a few minutes and you go. Nothing to worry about.

So what would happen if Seattle simply experimented with bus service to and from Yesler every ten minutes from 6:30am to 10pm for six months and saw how traffic flow was affected? I'd increase my bus ridership from probably 10 days a month to 20 days a month, and I bet you'd have a big increase in ridership across the board because you never have to worry if one is coming or not (a big ridership issue on the 48, or as an annoyed fellow resident once opined "the forty-late".)

I can't prove this... but it would be a low-cost experiment for the city. Double buses on Yesler from 70 (35 round trips) to 220 (10-minute service 6:30AM - 10PM , 30-minute service overnight), and see how much you reduce car traffic from 8,700/day.

[where: 98122]

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Which Neighborhood Has Most Traffic Congestion?

Every year the city conducts a traffic flow study, which measures the number of cars that go down a particular street during a typical day.

Some interesting stats from 2006:
Cars per day that drive through Ranier & Jackson -- 30,900
Cars per day that drive over the Montlake Bridge -- 56,800
Cars per day that drive through Queen Anne Ave N. -- 11,900

Car Traffic vs. Bus Traffic:
Cars per day that drive on E Yesler between 14th and 23rd -- 8,700
Number of 27 buses per day that travel that same route -- 70 (35 each way)

Cars vs. Population :
Cars per day that drive over the West Seattle bridge -- 109,900
Number of people that live in West Seattle -- 102,761
(Defined as the four WS zips 98106,116,126,136 + WhiteCenter 98146 -- 2000 Census)

Clearly this last stat is mind-blowing. More to come.

Check out the traffic flow stats yourself.

And see this interesting article suggesting why Vancouver has more public trans usage than Seattle or Portland.

[where: 98122]

The Police Call Back, Part 1

I've been playing phone tag with SPD for the past few weeks regarding my complaints / observations on driving violations outside Leschi Elementary School.

This morning I received a call back, and had a very good conversation with the officer, who listened patiently to be babble and ramble on about driving through stop signs. I get the sense I'm not the only person who calls about these types of issues, and I must say that I was impressed by the professionalism/demeanor of the call.

So be careful all you drivers, there will be traffic enforcement stepped up at the intersection and I will report back when I get details.

[where: 98122]

Monday, September 17, 2007

Four and a Half Million Bucks

The City of Seattle is spending that much money on neighborhood-proposed street improvement projects.

The Central Sector, which looks like it is defined as between the 520 and 90 bridges from the Sound to the Lake, has about 20 projects proposed ranging in cost from a few hundred grand to five million bucks, which would get you a wider road, retaining wall, improved storm/sewer infrastructure from 11th Ave E & Delmar to E Lynn & Boyer.

One of the proposed improvements near where I live is traffic calming near Jackson Place, which would be to install curb bulbs or chicanes at various places on arterials getting onto Ranier Ave S and S. Jackson. I had to look up what chicanes were... they're the S-shaped roads you see up North in a few places such as NE 98th street. There is a study which does show reduced speeds on these streets.

Citizens are asked to vote for the projects they like the best and consider them based on a number of criteria. Two of the criteria are broad public support and whether the proposal is included in a neighborhood plan as measured by SDOT.

I like this overall idea very much, but the voting and decisionmaking does not seem to be data-driven or the biggest bang for the buck. From what I can tell, it seems more like the neighborhoods that are most organized will be most successful at getting capital improvements done.

If anyone has more insight into how the City is going to make a decision, please comment.

[where: 98122]

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Leschi CC - Tree Trimming

On September 5th, the Leschi Community Council had its monthly meeting with the focus being creating a neighborhood plan. Here's a little history.

After the meeting was called to order, we split into five groups to brainstorm about the needs in the following areas:
- Traffic/Pedestrian Safety
- Land Use
- Parks/Green Space
- Economic Development
- Transportation

In the next few posts, I'll be covering the outcome of these brainstorms.

Traffic/Pedestrian Safety
You can probably guess that I joined this group. We had five recommendations, and I'll cover the first in this post.

1. Increase Tree Trimming -- We discussed that some street lights were blocked by overgrown tree branches, and these should be trimmed by the city or property owners so that community streets are well-lit. Related was that we felt property owners generally didn't know what their responsibilities were with respect to trees, and after some research I can see why.

As far as I can tell, here's the (confusing) deal:

When it comes to trimming, you need a permit from the Arborist's Office. Specifically, Seattle City Ordinance #90047 requires that all persons who prune and/or remove privately maintained trees within the public right-of-way area obtain a street use permit.

I also found evidence, though, that if the tree was planted by the city it is to be maintained by the city.

However, if a tree is near power lines or blocking street lights, it is the responsibility of City Light as found here. Call 386-1663 and they will make a determination if there is indeed a safety issue and they will take care of it.

My recommendations:
- Notify property owners of their rights and responsibilities with respect to trees.
- Understand from Seattle City Light what constitutes a safety risk.
- Do a neighborhood audit and have City Light handle those trees.

Some more interesting facts related to trees on city streets. There are roughly 130,000 trees, 15,000 of which have planted since 1989. In 1994, the City did a study of the health of trees and found these sobering statistics.

Over half dead - 3% - 2,214
1/4 to 1/2 dead - 8% - 6,927
Poor - 31% - 26,211
Good - 34% - 28,860
Great - 25% - 19,704

More info here.

[where: 98122]

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Carbon Footprint Smackdown

Who is more worthy of riding the carbon-footprint high horse?

In one corner... meat-loving walkers. (No car, loves a nice filet mignon.)
In the other corner... veggie-loving drivers? (Car, fruits and nuts only please.)

On the heels of my post yesterday on walkability, I went off to a carbon-offset calculator and decided to see how many tons of CO2 could be reduced by a Leschi resident going from driving downtown each workday to never driving. It's about 6 miles round trip, so 6 x 250 work days = 1,500 miles. Let's plug in my 1998 mid-size car and go to town.... no pun intended.

According to this calculator, if one were to reduce their driving to 1,000-3,000 miles from 3,000-6000 miles, they would reduce their carbon footprint by 0.9 tons.

I was pretty surprised when the same calculator said an individual moving their diet from omnivorous to vegetarian would reduce their carbon footprint by 1.1 tons. (Omnivorous to mostly vegetarian about .8 tons.)

Among many reasons, such as the amount of calories it takes to produce one calorie of meat one of the biggest reasons is simply cow farts.

Nearly full disclosure -- I'm in a car nearly half the time to work (carpool + driving), my car only gets avg. MPG (~25 Hwy) have a pescatarian diet (meat no, gelatin/stock no, fish yes, eggs/dairy yes).

[where: 98122]

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Which Neighborhood is most Walkable?

Now that Leschi has been defined as walkable and a neighborhood where one does not need a car, let's check the data.

First, which of the neighborhoods is most walkable in 98122?
Leschi -- 31st & Yesler... 71 of 100.
Squire Park -- 18th & Yesler... 83 of 100.
Capitol Hill -- 12th & Denny... 95 of 100.
Madrona -- 33rd & Cherry... 62 of 100.

How many residents of 98122 actually walk to work (from city-data.com)?
Means of transportation to work
Drove a car alone: 6,464 (39%)
Carpooled: 1,539 (9%)
Bus or trolley bus: 3,648 (22%)
Streetcar or trolley car: 21 (0%)
Railroad: 4 (0%)
Ferryboat: 10 (0%)
Taxi: 79 (0%)
Motorcycle: 109 (1%)
Bicycle: 477 (3%)
Walked: 3,187 (19%)
Other means: 78 (0%)
Worked at home: 779 (5%)

Number of Households in 98122 -- Roughly 24,000
Number of Households without Vehicles -- Roughly 4,400 (18%)

Let's compare this data back to my original findings that City of Seattle estimates that there are 4K-8K biker commuters. So roughly 10% of those are from 98122.

Disclosure -- my household owns two cars. I take the bus maybe 50%, carpool 30%, drive 15%, Walk/Cab 5%. My commute is 3 miles Leschi to downtown.

[where: 98122]

Monday, September 10, 2007

How Walkable is Leschi?

According to WalkScore.com -- somewhere in the middle, and according to their definitions you could get by without owning a car.

A flaw with the site is that it doesn't take into consideration bus lines and also if you type in an address just one block away you get different answers.

I walk downtown and back frequently enough that I would consider Leschi pretty darn walkable. Of course, I may have a slightly different definition of walkable than the average American.

[where: 98122]

Saturday, September 8, 2007

More on the Central Area Neighborhood Plan

Interesting anecdote from the 1992 Central Area Neighborhood Plan:

As if Seattle doesn't need another reminder of the snail's pace at which it is dealing with transportation issues. Excerpt from the Transportation section

UNRESOLVED/PENDING ISSUES
The primary transportation issues that have not been adequatly addressed in the transportation plan is how Central Area residents, employees end [sic] students will be served by the Regionef[sic] Transit Authority and potentially by the proposed Monorail expansion. Resolution of where these systems will be located is outside the scop of this plan, but the intent remains to ensure that there be excellent connection" from the Central Area to any futhre stations of these high capacity systems.

Um...

I'm still getting up to speed on this neighborhood planing initiative. On Thursday I was complaining about Leschi being ignored as a separate city area and also that the plan was 15 years old. Well, upon doing some research from what I can tell it was supposed to be a 20-year plan. Oh well... I should learn to read someone their miranda rights before shooting.

More to come as I get through the entire neighborhood plan and get going on writing down my observations from the Leschi Community Council meeting earlier this week.

[where: 98122]

Thursday, September 6, 2007

Leschi Neighborhood Plan

In 1993, the Leschi neighborhood submitted a neighborhood plan to the City of Seattle, only to have it rejected as Leschi was considered at that time to be within the "Central Area" neighborhood plan.

I found this out last night as I attended my first Leschi Community Council meeting at the Senior Center on 30th Ave S, which by the way has one of the best views of Lake Washington I have ever seen.

I'm going to be writing about this over the next few weeks because there were a lot of subjects brought up that are critically important to the community and I'm curious about each of these things and what we can do about them.

I guess before I get into the specific items covered, I wanted to understand what a neighborhood plan was. Here's what I could find:

According to the city, a neighborhood plan is approved by the city and passed as law and actually includes a detailed workplan... intended to serve as the primary tool to help the City implement the neighborhood plan.

I looked at all of the neighborhood plans and in particular the Central Area plan and one big thing jumped out at me.

This was completed in 1992. Dennis Eckersley won the MVP that year, Johnny Carson was still the host of the Tonight Show and Amy Fisher shot Mary Jo Buttafucco. My younger sister had braces. Dude. This was a long time ago. Seattle didn't have Internet millionaires and probably only had 30 or 40 Starbuck's at the time.

And this plan doesn't really cover much of Leschi in its emphasis.

So I don't know yet how much these plans really mean, but I feel some righteous indignation at the very least that Leschi wasn't considered it's own community at the time.

So now that I know a bit about this, I'm going to post some thoughts on the topics discussed in upcoming posts.

I Call the Police, Part 3

Success!!! I guess all you need is the right phone number...

After I submitted my e-mail yesterday, the resulting web page thanked me for my comments and provided me with a number I had not seen before. (It is not any of the numbers provided in the "contact us" page.)

I dialed it this morning, had a friendly conversation with the officer on the other end and she transferred me to the administrative office for the Traffic Enforcement Division. After listening patiently to my description of the intersection and my observations, the officer indicated they would both look into enforcement and give me a call back.

Faithful readers, I will follow-up as details unfold...

Wednesday, September 5, 2007

I Call the Police, Part 2

Tough day. I tried the local precinct again, and was given a number. I called it -- it was Rhonda in the budget office and I was put to voice mail. I didn't leave a message.

Then I called the non-emergency number, and selected the option to talk to an officer. I was directed to a message that said there were no operators standing by.

I'm resorting to e-mail. Here is what I sent:

-------------------------
Hi --

I'm trying to reach an officer in the Seattle Police Traffic Unit, and was hoping you could call me or respond with a phone number that I could call.

I live outside of an elementary school at a 4-way stop, and during school days and weekends (usually when it is a little less busy than rush hour), cars very frequently blow through the stop sign in a very unsafe manner.

Reading the SP Traffic Unit web site, I found that they focus on violations outside of schools, and I was hoping I could detail what I have seen to an officer and see if someone could place an enforcement officer at this intersection in the next month at some point.

There would certainly be a number of traffic violations and hopefully the prescence of an officer would remind drivers to obey the stop sign, especially in front of a school (and bus stop).

Sincerely,
John
-------------------------

That's it for now...

Tuesday, September 4, 2007

I call the Police, Part 1

The Leschi, Madrona and Capitol Hill neighborhoods are entirely covered by the East Precinct of the Seattle Police, which has five precincts. The station is at 12th and Pine.

I called the precinct on Tuesday morning to ask how to formally file a statement regarding the number of cars that blow through the 4-way intersection at 32nd and Yesler outside of an elementary school and bus stop.

The officer listened patiently, and I was referred to the Traffic Unit, and was provided a number which I called... it had been disconnected. Great.

I went back online to research further. I'm glad I did because I found that the SPD Traffic Unit has three squads... the DUI squad, the PM enforcement squad and the AM Enforcement Squad which has "the primary emphasis being traffic violations that occur in school zones". Sounds like they should be receptive to what I have to say.

Unfortunately, this web page did not list a phone number, so in my next post, I'll tell you how I got the number and also detail my call to the Traffic Unit.

Objective Labor Day Study of Bicycle and Auto Traffic on Yesler

Following on the heels of yesterday's post, where my investigation of Mayor Nickels "Bicycle Master Plan" uncovered that it is relying on bicycle advocacy groups to collect data on bike usage in the city of Seattle, I decided to conduct a little informal poll of my own on bike traffic.

At first, I was planning on simply counting the number of bicycles that passed in a 10-minute period. Then, after approximately 45 seconds of sample data, I witnessed such brazen displays of lawlessness that I decided to expand the parameters of my study.

Data to be collected:
1. How many bicyclists came to the intersection?
2. How many bicyclists made a valid and legal stop at the stop sign?
3. How many cars came to the intersection?
4. How many cars made a valid and legal stop at the stop sign?

I very quickly had to amend the data collected as it became clear that not a single car or cyclist was going to actually come to a full and complete stop before the stop sign. Without further ado, here is the outcome of the study:

The location: A four-way stop on Yesler.
Time: 2:43 - 2:50 PM, Labor Day, September 3rd

Number of cars passed: 15
Number of cars that made a full & complete stop: 1
Number of cars that sort of stopped legally: 8
Number of cars that blew the stop sign: 6

Number of cyclists passed: 4
Number of cyclists that made a full & complete stop: 1
Number of cyclists that sort of stopped legally: 2
Number of cyclists that blew the stop sign: 1
Number of mind-blowing spandex outfits w/ matching helmet: Sadly, just 1

This data was fairly shocking to me, especially the number of cars that made no attempt whatsoever to slowdown except for whatever deceleration was required to stop the tires from skidding prior to making a right turn.

Mind you... this intersection is directly in front of an elementary school -- and a bus stop -- and is on a hill.

If I was a police officer looking to make quota on traffic violations -- based on my small sample size of data -- this intersection is the motherlode.

My next action is to contact the local police precinct to ask them to crackdown on cars that don't stop... I'm not exactly a McGruff the Crime Dog sort of person... but this was over the top. I'm also going to consider collecting more data on a weekday morning before going to work to catch up on a more typical day.

To be continued...

Monday, September 3, 2007

Bicycle Master Plan -- Yesler... Priority #9

According to the City of Seattle Department of Transportation between 4,000 and 8,000 residents commute by bicycle. I decided to look this up as I saw a city employee marking up the sidewalk and street outside my house with white spray paint, and saw what appeared to be bike lanes outlined further west on Yesler.

Adding a bike lane to Yesler Ave is apparently is the 9th priority in Mayor Nickels Top 9 South Priorities to incorporate into the Bicycle Master Plan. 9th Priority out of 9???? Mayor Nickels must not live in my neighborhood because I see large volumes of spandex cruising by my kitchen window every day.

The goals of this plan are to triple the amount of bicycling in Seattle in the next 10 years while at the same time reducing the rate of crashes by one-third. I believe the lanes can encourage more bikers, but I have a hard time believing Seattle will reduce the rate of crashes. Given that Yesler allows street parking on both sides, is on a major bus route and is going to add space for biking, I don't think that crashes will be reduced by much unless this plan is accompanied by driver education on how to look for bikers and factor them into driving.

The performance measures are comedic... performance target for tripling the number of bicyclists until 2017 will be collected in part by bicycle advocacy groups who will count the number of bikers that go by various locations. Hmmmm... I suppose I'm being unnecessarily cynical since I'm completely in support of this plan, but I would suggest that data collection & statistical analysis is a little more impartial.